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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."